Affected in 2009 by a recession more intense than other European countries under the effect of a sharp drop in household consumption and investment, the British economy is currently distinguished by the strength of renewed growth (1.8% in 2013). Forecast at +2.7% in 2014 by Coface, it could be as dynamic as that of the United States and exceedGermany (2%).
Coface expects a considerable slowdown of GDP in 2014 but considers 2015 to be a turning point, boosting GDP in the medium term. In terms of market efficiency the country is weak, despite its potential in terms of market size. Local industry has been facing pressured margins, due to high transportation and energy costs and wages
Prior to the forthcoming presidential elections in August 2014, Coface is cautious in its assessment of corporate risks in Turkey. If political tensions rise again, as happened in December and January, investors may flee the country which could result in a fluctuation in Forex markets.
The first quarter of 2014 confirmed the acceleration in global growth: according to Coface's forecasts, after 2.6% in 2013, growth will be close to 3% in 2014 and 3.3% in 2015. The eurozone (1.1% expected in 2014) is slowly but surely recovering from a serious double-dip. The USis showing dynamic and balanced growth (2.7% forecast in 2014), in spite of bad weather in January.
Companies in the CEE region faced a challenging year in 2013: The already weak economic situation deteriorated and household consumption decreased due to fiscal measures designed to tackle rising budget deficits. Access to credit was further constrained in line with reduced supply and demand for new loans.